The next big development

The next big technological break through is going to require major increase in household bandwidth. Internet bandwidth has to increase, to 1.5 mb upload and download speeds. This will result in a major entertainment breakthrough, change if you prefer. Entertainment is going the way of the VHS cassette. DVD's (and whats that blue disc called?) is going the same place as the VHS cassette. We will all be downloading our videos, onto a tablet, like the apple mini ipad.

Meetings will become virtual meetings, with a set of glasses that enable us to watch video, have meetings and exercise. The biggest development will be in the gaming industry. The next step will find us in the game, playing as the character. Initially we will go to a building and play at a center especially developed to host these virtual games. As internet progresses and develops into a household necessity, we will see more of these online virtual games coming into the home. It will be marketed as a exercise opportunity. Kids and alpha males will love having the opportunity of partaking in the virtual world.

Overnight billionaires will spring up around this new technology. As with everything, there will be the detractors, the 'critics' and those that just plain see the downside in everything. Like the kittyhawk, there will be the religious condemning this as demonic. However, it will grow due to popularity and fast replace the old Television, the Xbox and or even the home PC.

Spring is on its way but what’s next

Spring is on its way, but what does summer hold? I am skeptical this year. Normally, I am excited that spring is coming, because summer always has the promise of a new year, a new season, but what does fall hold? Last year, ‘fall’ saw the ‘Fall’ of our economy, our way of life and just about everything is about to change. The future will definitely never be the same again. We are in transition, but our future is not going to be even similar to our past. 

Change is inevitable. We grow older, we change. Our values change. Society changes, our children grow and change, causing us to change. We learn new language  from our children, we learn new games, and even embrace new tech from our children. I never thought I would ever find myself saying this - but what does the future hold for my son? 

Pessimism is not my strength. I prefer the sun filled future of new adventures, new mountains to climb, new ocean reefs to explore, new roads to travel and new motorcycles to purchase. I dream of sipping orange juice while eating breakfast over the Serengheti in a hot air balloon. I dream of drinking tea with my wife at base camp (Himalayas), of sailing a Catamaran on the Red Sea, of once again swimming with whale sharks off the African coast, but with pirates that may not be possible ever again!

What does the future hold? Of one thing I am sure - I seriously doubt whether anybody can really know with any certainty what the future holds. We can speculate and dream, but right now, our future seems to be less bright that ever before. I take solace in this one fact from history. When the earth is at its worst sociologically is when God moves the greatest mountains. Evry time the earth needs a miracle, a man of God stands up to lead with boldness and outspoken leadership. I pray that the Christian world receives the next generation of leadership that is coming to the foreground... 

Intellect or data processor?

The debate eternal rallies around how do we define intelligence vs intellect. A computer is programed by a human, but is able to process data at a much faster rate that said human. Does this mean that the computer is in fact more intelligent than the human programmer? If that were the case, then the computer could in fact program itself. Now, we know that computers generally cannot program themselves, (but this is not to suggest that computers cannot one day be programmed to learn and adapt to new data input) but does self programming equate to intelligence? I guess a better question is, do we measure data processing speed in terms of intelligence? 

I suggest that data processing speed is in reality a measure of intelligence as we now define it. Intellect on the other hand is more along the lines of the ability to make deductions based upon a predefined set of data. What would we define the ability to deduce from data that is incomplete? How do we define the ability to imagine missing pieces of data? Beyond the obvious pattern suddoko puzzle. How do we define that part of our human mind that make deductions through the ‘art’ of vision? This is neither critical thinking, nor a subset of the intelligence quotient.

Another concept which computers just cannot be programmed to grasp is emotional quotient. The ability to determine a person’s action based upon their emotional mindset at the time of making the decision. People make decisions not only based on the facts at their disposal, but also as a result of training, cultural context, emotional make up and a variety of other factors that a programmed machine can never really figure out. Just ask any husband why his wife chose one handbag over another and you will get that same response from a machine. In the old pin ball machines the lighted ‘tilt’ sign shows up on the face of said husband.

Just last week (Feb 2011) a computer (Watson) beat out two of the top Jeopardy players in the country, but was unable to demonstrate any of the emotional signs of this success. It can very well be argued that the machine is well able to process data at a faster rate than its human counterparts, but  it has no ability to determine human action or respond accordingly.

My thought is this. We are going to have to redefine intelligence. Our present definition is flawed, and with computers processing faster than the human mind - we run the risk of all being classified as idiots soon.

Changing workplace

In the past a family could survive on dad’s income. Times changed, college became more expensive, food prices went up and mom went to work. We adjusted our lifestyle accordingly. People flocked to the large cities, real estate prices went crazy, housing boom occurred, and everybody was living and working in the city.

Then we moved into the suburbs, and commuted. Real estate in the suburbs now went crazy, and those poor souls stuck in the city, were frankly, stuck. Then the housing market collapsed, unemployment went into orbit and the stock market discovered just how low it could go, and still not find a bottom.

Next stage in the evolution, mom has two jobs, dad has three and a crazier economy than ever before. Everybody knows somebody who has suffered a foreclosure, lost their jobs, living on unemployment and has more than one job.

So what does this new economy look like? The average family has several jobs in an effort to make ends meet, as food prices increase, gas prices seem to have no ceiling and cost of living soars. Is there an end in sight?

I am convinced that more and more people will be sub contracting to their present employers. Tele commuting is the answer. People working from home office’s will decrease cost of travel, bring more actual cash into the home.  This will be accelerated if the new health care program is instituted. Small Business owners cannot afford the burden of health insurance for each employee, and so the obvious solution is hire sub contractors who pay for their own benefits. One subcontractor can now work for several companies at the same time, especially if the companies are all in different industries and the employee is not dealing with a conflict of interests.

Having less employees at your office reduces utility bills, paper costs, printing costs, coffee costs etc. You don’t need as many desks, telephone lines, parking spaces or such a large HR department. Now you hire a sub contractor who is paid per project. This brings in higher project fees, but a reduced cost per employee by eliminating employee benefits, parking spaces, office size and corresponding costs. I call this out sizing rather than down sizing. The quality of work produced will increase as each sub contractor now bids on a project. This bidding process keeps the costs down, but the quality will increase. The better your perform the more contracts you acquire. 

Change the economy

Obviously business today is not the same as yesterday and tomorrow seems to be a crap shoot.  Business used to be dominated by the administrators and capitalists really took greed to a whole new down and low. What’s the future hold?

I see a future where creativity is ‘key’. The creative people are going to dominate business. Its going to take a creative thinker to get our present day economy up and running, and this will overflow into new start ups. Businesses of tomorrow (and to some extent today) are going to be more creative and less administrative. More and more people are moving out of the office and into a remote business concept. Outsourcing of many staff functions that were once in house (like call centers) are fast becoming outsourced. Commuting to and from the central workplace is fast becoming a thing of the past. More and more people will be working from home. This has so many advantages for everybody, but requires a creative mind to manage this type of ‘office’.

The key to increased home offices spring up, is linked to broadband internet. The faster the internet gets, the more data is pushed down and upstream. This causes bottle necks of data. The internet needs larger coverage in rural areas. Once the jump is made from a physical line to radio based system, with a major increase in speed, we could see our whole economy change.

I see so many opportunities in the internet development. Business is really not coming close to touching the potential that the world wide net has to offer. I am surprised that so few actually see this potential? Perhaps there is a concerted effort to ignore this? The thing with the internet is that its really hard to control the flow of information. As we have seen in Egypt and China, that the internet is a wonderful tool in the hands of a creative youth, but dangerous to the ruling political party. Maybe, this is the reason we have not seen the explosive development that needs to take place to change our economy. Changing the economy will see to a power shift. As the administrators loose control, this influence is handed over to the creative people. A paradigm shift is taking place...an we are living in the midst of the most exciting changes of world economy ever!

Food supplies

What does the future hold for our world?

My expectations are of a future with future shortages, which creates a market for artificial food. Artificial food will start out tasting really bland, and looking worse than spam. In time, this will be refined. You will be eating what looks like a rib eye, tastes like one, but it may not have the texture of a rib eye. In time, you will forget what texture to expect, as you become accustomed to the artificial rib eyes.

Mash potatoes would be far easier to ‘duplicate’ texture, taste and of course make. All our food will be artificial with only the very rich being able to afford private farms where the real stuff exists. Visionaries will buy farm land and keep it for the long term. Unfortunately, governments will use some ‘legislation’ to take that farm land for the ‘greater good’ and end up turning it into a apartment complex or business park.  The question is :”How do you ‘keep’ your farm land from being taken? The answer is far from simple and one that I have no comment on.

Churches will do what they always have. They will merely adapt their theology espousing the ‘value’ of being ‘green’. During the horrible days of Nazi rule churches bowed down to the politics of the day. This will once again be the prevailing pattern. Church leaders are too afraid of ‘rocking the boat’ and as such they would become ‘all things to all men’ and compromise ‘truth’ for political correctness.

Opponents will be labeled as terrorists, hell bent on destroying the earth, radicals etc etc. What about the internet? We are fast learning that social networking sites like ‘twitter’ ‘facebook’ are dangerous for any government. Take the latest uprising in Egypt, or a while back China (for reference this is Feb 2011). These spontaneous uprisings have occurred due to the the popularity of social networking and the rapid dissemination of information. The big problem with the ‘net is that nobody checks facts. So, a falsehood can spread across the globe in minutes and nobody even knows if its a ‘fact’ or just a fantasy.

The second major problem for any government is that this same ‘net can be sued to stir up people, move them to vote one way or another. In the hans of a skilled ‘operator’ the internet is far more powerful than any mass media. Support for an idea can be garnered quickly and quite unpredictably. Point is, there is no control over the flow of information. THIS IS TOO DANGEROUS and will have to change. Politicians like to be on control of information. This is not a reflection of good or bad governments, but human nature. Human nature enjoys power, and as the adage goes, information does in fact equal power. He (or she, or the entity) that can influence the flow of information on the internet will indeed be able to influence the direction of any conversation that begins at the grass roots level.

This is bad for business, politicians and anybody who aspires to be in power. The safe bet is that there will be an attempt to control the internet. This is far more possible than we would like to believe in our present age. It will be interesting to see how quickly politicians realize that the internet can play a major role in who gets elected. 

Water is the next critical element that will have a major impact on our lives. Clean water is slowly disappearing. We will either have to start searching the solar system for a fresh supply of water. Desalinating sea water is a short term solution to a growing problem. In of itself, desalinating has some problems...mainly we would be using up the very water that our food supply needs to live in. As our population continues to explode, this will only be a short term solution.

Pollution, food supply and not enough land will all add to the inevitable conclusion - we need to start colonies on other planets. Eventually big business will take over the space race, and this will become profitable, and rapid advances will occur. I do wonder how soon the first colonies will be planted off planet, and on which planet? Somebody with vision and a tremendous financial source will become the next pioneer of settlers. The USA history is full of adventure stories of how the west was won. The new stories will be on how Mars was conquered.

Future world

17^th Jan 2011

In this future/alternative verse we find that the human mind interacts directly with the internet. Only its not called the internet, its known as the cerebral net. In this world you do not have to connect through a keyboard and computer. You merely ‘plug in’ via a wireless headset that translates your electrical impulses (thoughts) into data and data back into thoughts. In the same way that 1’s and 0’s are translated into script that we can read (ie letters, symbols etc) so the electrical impulses of the mind are translated into 1 and 0’s and back. The wireless headset eventually becomes small enough to be a simple ear piece and eventually is implanted under the skin behind the ear in a simple outpatient procedure.

This wireless connection allows users to interact with their social networks, updating their twitter accounts and or scheduling appointments etc. It takes away the need for cumbersome travel, airport with inevitable delays etc. If you need to be trained, you simply download the program and its instantaneous education. Imagine downloading software updates for your PC? Well, this is software updates for your mind.

The biggest advantage to this cerebral network is that you never actually die. Your body may expire (death is such a harsh word on this reality, that we do not use it anymore), we merely plug into to the network...for a fee of course. If you are a particularly influential thinker, genius beyond your time, then your mind can be kept alive indefinitely plugged into the cerebral network. This way, we all continue to gain from your intelligence. In turn, your thinking continues to support the costs associated with the care and maintenance of your ‘connection’.

Unfortunately, you cannot opt out and just die. The greater need of society will outweigh your mind’s needs...except of course if your mind has no more value. Its a value based society after all.

The cerebral network will also do away with cell phones as the normal communication form. The unforeseen side effect (or perhaps the ignored side effect) is that the cerebral network will eventually do away with movement. People will be come sedentary. Depression will set in on the first few adopters of this new technology as they get information overload. Eventually people adapt and this will be come the new norm. Entertainment will increase as we will have more time to ‘relax’. We will consume more entertainment than ever before.

Religion

Faith and its sidekick religion will always have its place. Fundamentally people need their religious expression. Thats a part of our very DNA and as such will never disappear no matter what technology introduces.

How do we worship God? We would all connect to the Church network and it will be a whole new cerebral experience, involving all your senses. You will smell the incense of your prayers, feel the emotion of the text, live the bible story as a participant. So you could actually be present at the crucifixion. Imagine being a witness? Well, you would ‘experience’ that in your mind. Very powerful indeed.

Thought police?

Being that we place so much value on privacy, this will never be a real issue. For the wireless headset to even make it’s way to market, there would have to be an iron clad firewall that prevents unauthorized access to your mind. The headset will have an on/off switch, a mute button if you like.You, as the user, actually have to enter into cyber mode and then ‘transmit’. You will get an ‘approve’ button (all taking place on a heads up display) before you transmit your message. The one positive side effect is that you will have to train your mind to focus. This will increase the mount of your mind you use, lead to less instances of mental slow down etc.

The most important ‘selling point ‘ of the cyber net or cerebral net is that you can plug out. You do not have to be connected 24/7. Eventually, you will be connected 24/7, but people like to have time to adopt new tech, so this will take a couple of generations before we are connected 24/7.

The Multiverse (M’verse for short) will be run by a corporation. Actually thats an oversimplification of the reality. There will be a series of corporations, transcending governments and politics. In order to do business, several large multinational conglomerations will be content providers of the cerebral net. These large corporations will preach ‘freedom of information, but in actual fact they will filter data flow according to their best interests. This will be lip service to freedom of speech, but in reality only the super large corporations will have any form of speech resembling freedom. Everybody else will be ‘fed’ what ever the advertisers want. Fashions will be predetermined according to budget and availability of technology to produce that particular fabric in high enough quantities to meet demand.

Bio domes will be created to protect the ozone layer. Bio domes will filter the air to reduce the spread of airborne pathogens. Garbage will be used as a power source to fuel the bio dome. Artificial light will become the norm, as the skies are ‘closed’ over for our protection from the pollution. Food will be produced, no longer farmed. Farming was such a cruel food source anyway.

New food will be introduce will the same taste as beef, no fat, no hardening of the arteries, and pure protein. People will spend less on health care, as well will not be able to contract as many sicknesses in the bio domes. Computer technicians will replace medical staff, as we all connect to the cerebral net.

Rebellion

Rebellion will be bad for business. Law enforcement will really be replaced by large security companies, contracted out by city councils, or bio dome management team. Politics by and large will be slowly replaced by a more commercial driven government form. Free capitalism will lead to controlled commerce, very controlled by a few large corporations.

I expect these corporations will in fact be entertainment or ‘content driven’. Content will become the new gold rush. Even now news media are transitioning to ‘content’ rather than ‘news’. We have opinion rather than ‘facts’.

In the M’verse, content will be the commodity like gold once was. Information will be king.

Rebels will simply be put out of the bio dome as ‘contagious’ health risk warnings. Anyone with a health risk label will be placed outside to serve the greater good. Information will be a commodity. 

With all this content driven society, hard drive space will be at a premium. A new technology for staring data will be developed. The large space required to store data of the year 2010 will be replaced.

Opportunity for the future ~ the person who come sup with a new technology to store large quantities of data in smaller spaces will be rich. Some sort of an optical cable? Storing data on optical cables perhaps?? I imagine a fiber optic cable rather than a hard disk.

Applications will become ‘free’; subsidized by content providers initially but later on there will just be a new way to interface that does away with an ‘app’! You will subscribe to a selection of channels rather than just connecting to the world wide internet.

Once again to ‘protect’ you from information overload, you will select a package of content from a larger source...similar to the way in which you now select your cable TV channels. Parents will be able to select channels for their children, age appropriate, faith dependent culturally relevant etc etc.

School could actually take place while you sleep at night. There will be many studies doe on the danger of depriving the individual from REM sleep. There will be Surgeon General warnings and more studies. Finally, there will be a channel that actually simulates rem sleep! Channel surfing will become addictive.